Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | 49.3% | 37.9% | 7.5% | 3.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+7.7 | 32.5%+5.4 | 20.3%−12.8 | 3.0%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Doug Downey · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 14.3 points, with 45.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 11.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Downey Elected | PC | 20,073 | 49.9 |
| Rose Zacharias | OLP | 14,332 | 35.6 |
| Tracey Lapham | NDP | 2,710 | 6.7 |
| Tim Grant | GP | 1,637 | 4.1 |
| Alex Della Ventura | OTH | 856 | 2.1 |
| Erin Patterson | OTH | 637 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Barrie—Innisfil PC, safe seat
- Simcoe North PC, safe seat
- Simcoe—Grey PC, safe seat
- York—Simcoe PC, safe seat
- Newmarket—Aurora PC, toss-up
- King—Vaughan PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated