Simcoe—Grey
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simcoe—Grey | 53.1% | 33.7% | 7.4% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+11.5 | 32.5%+1.3 | 20.3%−13.0 | 2.6%+1.1 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Brian Saunderson · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 21.2 points, with 44.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 19.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Saunderson Elected | PC | 30,572 | 53.6 |
| Ted Crysler | OLP | 18,507 | 32.4 |
| Benten Tinkler | NDP | 3,264 | 5.7 |
| Allan Kuhn | GP | 3,154 | 5.5 |
| David Ghobrial | OTH | 1,554 | 2.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Barrie—Innisfil PC, safe seat
- Dufferin—Caledon PC, safe seat
- Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PC, safe seat
- King—Vaughan PC, safe seat
- Brampton North PC, safe seat
- Brampton East PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated