Barrie—Innisfil
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrie—Innisfil | 53.5% | 28.3% | 14.2% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+11.9 | 32.5%−4.1 | 20.3%−6.2 | 2.6%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Andrea Khanjin · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 28.1 points, with 41.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 25.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Khanjin Elected | PC | 22,048 | 54.1 |
| Dane Lee | OLP | 10,613 | 26.0 |
| Andrew Harrigan | NDP | 5,442 | 13.4 |
| Stephen Ciesielski | GP | 1,655 | 4.1 |
| Sam Mangiapane | OTH | 814 | 2.0 |
| Anna Yuryeva | OTH | 174 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- York—Simcoe PC, safe seat
- Newmarket—Aurora PC, toss-up
- Simcoe—Grey PC, safe seat
- Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PC, safe seat
- King—Vaughan PC, safe seat
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated