York—Simcoe
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York—Simcoe | 59.0% | 25.2% | 9.3% | 3.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+17.3 | 32.5%−7.2 | 20.3%−11.0 | 3.0%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Caroline Mulroney · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 35.5 points, with 40.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 33.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Mulroney Elected | PC | 24,705 | 59.4 |
| Fatima Chaudhry | OLP | 9,941 | 23.9 |
| Justin Graham | NDP | 3,206 | 7.7 |
| Jennifer Baron | GP | 2,006 | 4.8 |
| Brent Fellman | OTH | 841 | 2.0 |
| Sean Conroy | OTH | 434 | 1.0 |
| Alana Hollander | OTH | 317 | 0.8 |
| Franco Colavecchia | OTH | 138 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newmarket—Aurora PC, toss-up
- Barrie—Innisfil PC, safe seat
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PC, safe seat
- Markham—Stouffville PC, toss-up
- Markham—Unionville PC, safe seat
- King—Vaughan PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated