Dufferin—Caledon
Provincial riding · Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | GP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dufferin—Caledon | 49.7% | 28.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+8.0 | 32.5%−3.6 | 2.6%+7.6 | 20.3%−11.8 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Sylvia Jones · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 27.1 points, with 42.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 20.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sylvia Jones Elected | PC | 26,072 | 52.5 |
| Michael Dehn | OLP | 12,606 | 25.4 |
| Sandy Brown | GP | 6,157 | 12.4 |
| George Nakitsas | NDP | 3,184 | 6.4 |
| Kris Eggleton | OTH | 1,074 | 2.2 |
| Jeffrey Halsall | IND | 384 | 0.8 |
| Alexey Cherkashov | OTH | 197 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brampton North PC, safe seat
- Brampton West PC, safe seat
- Simcoe—Grey PC, safe seat
- Wellington—Halton Hills PC, safe seat
- Brampton East PC, safe seat
- Brampton Centre PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated