Peterborough—Kawartha
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a 72% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough—Kawartha | 40.1% | 39.0% | 17.7% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%−1.5 | 32.5%+6.5 | 20.3%−2.7 | 3.0%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Dave Smith · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 4.0 points, with 52.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Smith Elected | PC | 22,417 | 40.7 |
| Adam Hopkins | OLP | 20,217 | 36.7 |
| Jen Deck | NDP | 9,290 | 16.9 |
| Lucas Graham | GP | 1,745 | 3.2 |
| Andrew Roudny | OTH | 859 | 1.6 |
| Brian Martindale | OTH | 581 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Northumberland—Peterborough South PC, safe seat
- Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PC, safe seat
- Durham PC, safe seat
- Oshawa NDP, safe seat
- Whitby PC, toss-up
- Hastings—Lennox and Addington PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated