Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Provincial riding · Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hastings—Lennox and Addington | 45.8% | 33.2% | 13.7% | 6.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+4.1 | 32.5%+0.7 | 20.3%−6.6 | 3.0%+3.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Ric Bresee · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 18.8 points, with 49.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 12.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ric Bresee Elected | PC | 20,249 | 48.6 |
| Lynn Rigby | OLP | 12,398 | 29.7 |
| Jessica Zielke | NDP | 4,810 | 11.5 |
| Derek Sloan | OTH | 2,318 | 5.6 |
| Mike Holbrook | GP | 1,376 | 3.3 |
| Glenn Tyrrell | OTH | 528 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bay of Quinte PC, safe seat
- Peterborough—Kawartha PC, toss-up
- Kingston and the Islands OLP, safe seat
- Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PC, safe seat
- Northumberland—Peterborough South PC, safe seat
- Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated