Bay of Quinte
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bay of Quinte | 43.6% | 33.6% | 19.6% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+1.9 | 32.5%+1.2 | 20.3%−0.7 | 3.0%−1.3 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Tyler Allsopp · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 12.8 points, with 48.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 9.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allsopp Elected | PC | 20,606 | 44.1 |
| David O'Neil | OLP | 14,652 | 31.4 |
| Amanda Robertson | NDP | 8,793 | 18.8 |
| Lori Borthwick | GP | 1,618 | 3.5 |
| Anthony Zambito | OTH | 518 | 1.1 |
| Nick Maddison | OTH | 501 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hastings—Lennox and Addington PC, safe seat
- Northumberland—Peterborough South PC, safe seat
- Kingston and the Islands OLP, safe seat
- Peterborough—Kawartha PC, toss-up
- Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PC, safe seat
- Durham PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated