Kingston and the Islands
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 42.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingston and the Islands | 63.7% | 21.6% | 13.1% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+31.2 | 41.6%−20.0 | 20.3%−7.2 | 3.0%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Ted Hsu · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 39.3 points, with 49.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 42.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Hsu Elected | OLP | 33,288 | 61.6 |
| Ian Chapelle | PC | 12,022 | 22.2 |
| Elliot Goodell Ugalde | NDP | 6,663 | 12.3 |
| Zachary Typhair | GP | 1,195 | 2.2 |
| Allan Wilson | OTH | 565 | 1.0 |
| James Mcnair | OTH | 331 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PC, safe seat
- Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes PC, safe seat
- Bay of Quinte PC, safe seat
- Hastings—Lennox and Addington PC, safe seat
- Kanata—Carleton OLP, safe seat
- Carleton PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated