Kanata—Carleton
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanata—Carleton | 50.1% | 40.0% | 8.0% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+17.6 | 41.6%−1.6 | 20.3%−12.4 | 3.0%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Karen McCrimmon · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 7.3 points, with 50.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 10.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Mccrimmon Elected | OLP | 22,811 | 47.9 |
| Scott Phelan | PC | 19,353 | 40.6 |
| Dave Belcher | NDP | 3,419 | 7.2 |
| Jennifer Purdy | GP | 1,199 | 2.5 |
| Elizabeth Watson | OTH | 503 | 1.1 |
| Frank Jakubowski | OTH | 323 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ottawa West—Nepean NDP, safe seat
- Nepean OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre NDP, safe seat
- Carleton PC, safe seat
- Ottawa South OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated