Carleton
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carleton | 48.9% | 40.7% | 7.9% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+7.3 | 32.5%+8.3 | 20.3%−12.4 | 3.0%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
George Darouze · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 11.0 points, with 47.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 8.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Darouze Elected | PC | 26,158 | 49.6 |
| Brandon Bay | OLP | 20,335 | 38.6 |
| Sherin Faili | NDP | 3,763 | 7.1 |
| Mystic Plaunt | GP | 956 | 1.8 |
| Rob Stocki | OTH | 699 | 1.3 |
| Myles Dear | OTH | 346 | 0.7 |
| Bruce Anthony Faulkner | OTH | 263 | 0.5 |
| Brian Hull | IND | 202 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nepean OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean NDP, safe seat
- Ottawa South OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre NDP, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier OLP, safe seat
- Orléans OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated