Orléans
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orléans | 56.4% | 34.7% | 6.8% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+23.9 | 41.6%−6.9 | 20.3%−13.5 | 3.0%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Stephen Blais · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 18.9 points, with 47.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 21.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Blais Elected | OLP | 30,482 | 54.2 |
| Stéphan Plourde | PC | 19,868 | 35.3 |
| Matthew Sévigny | NDP | 3,378 | 6.0 |
| Michelle Petersen | GP | 1,398 | 2.5 |
| Patricia Hooper | OTH | 636 | 1.1 |
| Ken Lewis | OTH | 233 | 0.4 |
| Arabella Vida | IND | 138 | 0.3 |
| Burthomley Douzable | IND | 129 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ottawa—Vanier OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa South OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre NDP, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean NDP, safe seat
- Nepean OLP, safe seat
- Carleton PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated