Ottawa South
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa South | 55.4% | 24.0% | 18.5% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+22.9 | 41.6%−17.7 | 20.3%−1.8 | 3.0%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
John Fraser · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 28.6 points, with 42.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 31.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Fraser Elected | OLP | 22,326 | 53.2 |
| Jan Gao | PC | 10,315 | 24.6 |
| Morgan Gay | NDP | 7,447 | 17.8 |
| Nira Dookeran | GP | 1,206 | 2.9 |
| Alex Perrier | OTH | 638 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ottawa Centre NDP, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier OLP, safe seat
- Orléans OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean NDP, safe seat
- Nepean OLP, safe seat
- Carleton PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated