Ottawa West—Nepean
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa West—Nepean | 50.1% | 28.1% | 20.0% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+29.7 | 41.6%−13.5 | 32.5%−12.5 | 3.0%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Chandra Pasma · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 20.6 points, with 45.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 21.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chandra Pasma Elected | NDP | 20,087 | 49.3 |
| Husien Abu-Rayash | PC | 11,697 | 28.7 |
| Brett Szmul | OLP | 7,229 | 17.8 |
| Sophia Andrew-Joiner | GP | 976 | 2.4 |
| Rylan Vroom | OTH | 733 | 1.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ottawa Centre NDP, safe seat
- Nepean OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa South OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier OLP, safe seat
- Carleton PC, safe seat
- Orléans OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated