Nepean
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nepean | 50.7% | 37.8% | 9.6% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+18.2 | 41.6%−3.9 | 20.3%−10.7 | 3.0%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Tyler Watt · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 10.1 points, with 45.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 12.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Watt Elected | OLP | 22,683 | 48.5 |
| Alex Lewis | PC | 17,962 | 38.4 |
| Max Blair | NDP | 4,116 | 8.8 |
| Sheilagh Mclean | GP | 885 | 1.9 |
| John Kovach | OTH | 485 | 1.0 |
| Carmen Charbonneau | OTH | 385 | 0.8 |
| Peter Westaway | IND | 223 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ottawa West—Nepean NDP, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre NDP, safe seat
- Carleton PC, safe seat
- Ottawa South OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier OLP, safe seat
- Orléans OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated