Ottawa Centre
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | OLP | PC | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Centre | 56.4% | 25.5% | 15.8% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+36.1 | 32.5%−6.9 | 41.6%−25.8 | 3.0%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Catherine McKenney · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 32.4 points, with 49.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 30.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Mckenney Elected | NDP | 32,483 | 55.7 |
| Thomas Simpson | OLP | 13,591 | 23.3 |
| Scott Healey | PC | 9,573 | 16.4 |
| Simon Beckett | GP | 1,550 | 2.7 |
| Maria Desouza | OTH | 468 | 0.8 |
| Shannon Boschy | OTH | 321 | 0.6 |
| Cashton Perry | OTH | 232 | 0.4 |
| Josh Rachlis | IND | 102 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ottawa South OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean NDP, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier OLP, safe seat
- Nepean OLP, safe seat
- Orléans OLP, safe seat
- Carleton PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated