Ottawa—Vanier
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa—Vanier | 53.7% | 22.0% | 19.1% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+21.2 | 41.6%−19.6 | 20.3%−1.3 | 2.6%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Lucille Collard · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 28.9 points, with 38.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 31.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucille Collard Elected | OLP | 20,721 | 51.5 |
| Marilissa Gosselin | PC | 9,085 | 22.6 |
| Myriam Djilane | NDP | 7,350 | 18.3 |
| Christian Proulx | GP | 2,083 | 5.2 |
| Coreen Corcoran | OTH | 525 | 1.3 |
| Rishabh Bhatia | OTH | 511 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ottawa South OLP, safe seat
- Orléans OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre NDP, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean NDP, safe seat
- Nepean OLP, safe seat
- Carleton PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated