Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | 54.6% | 29.5% | 10.7% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+12.9 | 32.5%−3.0 | 20.3%−9.7 | 3.0% |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Steve Clark · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 27.9 points, with 51.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 25.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Clark Elected | PC | 25,118 | 55.1 |
| Lorna Jean Edmonds | OLP | 12,392 | 27.2 |
| Chris Wilson | NDP | 4,489 | 9.9 |
| Fiona Jager | GP | 1,926 | 4.2 |
| Chris Garrah | OTH | 743 | 1.6 |
| Daniel Calabretta | OTH | 561 | 1.2 |
| Mark Snow | OTH | 342 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Carleton PC, safe seat
- Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PC, safe seat
- Nepean OLP, safe seat
- Kanata—Carleton OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean NDP, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated