Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | 48.6% | 35.1% | 11.4% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+6.9 | 32.5%+2.6 | 20.3%−9.0 | 3.0%+0.6 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
John Jordan · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 16.3 points, with 51.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 13.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Jordan Elected | PC | 23,396 | 49.1 |
| Rob Rainer | OLP | 15,627 | 32.8 |
| John Macrae | NDP | 5,030 | 10.6 |
| Marlene Spruyt | GP | 1,595 | 3.4 |
| Wendy Dillistone-Whitaker | OTH | 982 | 2.1 |
| David Motton | OTH | 695 | 1.5 |
| Shane O'Neill | IND | 328 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes PC, safe seat
- Kanata—Carleton OLP, safe seat
- Kingston and the Islands OLP, safe seat
- Nepean OLP, safe seat
- Carleton PC, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated