Northumberland—Peterborough South
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northumberland—Peterborough South | 51.5% | 34.6% | 10.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+9.9 | 32.5%+2.2 | 20.3%−10.2 | 3.0%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. David Piccini · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 19.7 points, with 52.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 16.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Piccini Elected | PC | 28,502 | 52.1 |
| Dorothy Noronha | OLP | 17,705 | 32.4 |
| Bruce Lepage | NDP | 5,097 | 9.3 |
| Maxwell Groves | GP | 1,998 | 3.7 |
| Joshua Chalhoub | OTH | 717 | 1.3 |
| Florian Bors | OTH | 673 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Peterborough—Kawartha PC, toss-up
- Durham PC, safe seat
- Oshawa NDP, safe seat
- Whitby PC, toss-up
- Bay of Quinte PC, safe seat
- Ajax OLP, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated