Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Provincial riding · Ontario · Northern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 29.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | 52.7% | 23.6% | 18.1% | 5.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+11.0 | 32.5%−8.9 | 20.3%−2.3 | 3.0%+2.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Billy Denault · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 32.7 points, with 49.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 29.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Denault Elected | PC | 24,297 | 54.8 |
| Oliver Jacob | OLP | 9,804 | 22.1 |
| Marshall Buchanan | NDP | 6,607 | 14.9 |
| Kevin Holm | OTH | 1,587 | 3.6 |
| Anna Maria Dolan | GP | 1,123 | 2.5 |
| Mark Dickson | OTH | 893 | 2.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hastings—Lennox and Addington PC, safe seat
- Kanata—Carleton OLP, safe seat
- Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PC, safe seat
- Peterborough—Kawartha PC, toss-up
- Nipissing PC, safe seat
- Bay of Quinte PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated