Nipissing
Provincial riding · Ontario · Northern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nipissing | 52.7% | 28.4% | 14.0% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+11.0 | 20.3%+8.1 | 32.5%−18.4 | 3.0%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Victor Fedeli · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 29.6 points, with 48.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 24.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vic Fedeli Elected | PC | 17,356 | 54.8 |
| Loren Mick | NDP | 7,980 | 25.2 |
| Liam Mcgarry | OLP | 3,996 | 12.6 |
| Colton Chaput | GP | 1,292 | 4.1 |
| Michelle Lashbrook | OTH | 536 | 1.7 |
| Scott Mooney | OTH | 496 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Parry Sound—Muskoka PC, toss-up
- Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP, safe seat
- Simcoe North PC, safe seat
- Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PC, safe seat
- Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PC, safe seat
- Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated