Timiskaming—Cochrane
Provincial riding · Ontario · Northern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timiskaming—Cochrane | 47.3% | 35.7% | 11.1% | 3.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+26.9 | 41.6%−6.0 | 32.5%−21.4 | 2.6%+1.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
John Vanthof · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 6.1 points, with 48.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 11.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Vanthof Elected | NDP | 11,085 | 44.0 |
| Tory Delaurier | PC | 9,549 | 37.9 |
| Rick Ellsmere | OLP | 2,446 | 9.7 |
| Kris Rivard | GP | 1,359 | 5.4 |
| Stephen Macleod | OTH | 777 | 3.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nickel Belt NDP, safe seat
- Sudbury NDP, safe seat
- Nipissing PC, safe seat
- Parry Sound—Muskoka PC, toss-up
- Timmins PC, safe seat
- Simcoe North PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated