Sudbury
Provincial riding · Ontario · Northern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudbury | 49.9% | 36.3% | 12.0% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+29.6 | 41.6%−5.3 | 32.5%−20.5 | 3.0%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jamie West · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 8.1 points, with 47.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 13.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie West Elected | NDP | 14,760 | 46.7 |
| Max Massimiliano | PC | 12,194 | 38.6 |
| Rashid Mukhtar Choudhry | OLP | 3,352 | 10.6 |
| David Robinson | GP | 748 | 2.4 |
| Brady Legault | OTH | 421 | 1.3 |
| J. David Popescu | IND | 106 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nickel Belt NDP, safe seat
- Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP, safe seat
- Parry Sound—Muskoka PC, toss-up
- Nipissing PC, safe seat
- Timmins PC, safe seat
- Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated