Nickel Belt
Provincial riding · Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickel Belt | 50.1% | 32.7% | 14.3% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+29.8 | 41.6%−9.0 | 32.5%−18.1 | 3.0%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
France Gélinas · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 12.7 points, with 50.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 17.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| France Gélinas Elected | NDP | 17,123 | 48.4 |
| Randy Hazlett | PC | 12,629 | 35.7 |
| Natalie Labbée | OLP | 3,874 | 10.9 |
| Paul Divincenzo | OTH | 676 | 1.9 |
| Connie Hill | GP | 631 | 1.8 |
| James Chretien | OTH | 470 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sudbury NDP, safe seat
- Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP, safe seat
- Parry Sound—Muskoka PC, toss-up
- Nipissing PC, safe seat
- Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC, safe seat
- Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated