Parry Sound—Muskoka
Provincial riding · Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 57%.
Compared with the average
| PC | GP | OLP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | 44.0% | 39.5% | 9.6% | 5.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+2.3 | 2.6%+36.9 | 32.5%−22.9 | 20.3%−15.3 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Graydon Smith · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 5.1 points, with 53.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 4.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graydon Smith Elected | PC | 21,731 | 46.8 |
| Matt Richter | GP | 19,360 | 41.7 |
| David Innes | OLP | 2,828 | 6.1 |
| Jim Ronholm | NDP | 1,329 | 2.9 |
| Brandon Nicksy | OTH | 785 | 1.7 |
| Helen Kroeker | OTH | 403 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PC, safe seat
- Simcoe North PC, safe seat
- Nipissing PC, safe seat
- Barrie—Innisfil PC, safe seat
- Simcoe—Grey PC, safe seat
- York—Simcoe PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated