Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | GP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | 43.7% | 30.7% | 10.6% | 9.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+2.1 | 32.5%−1.7 | 2.6%+8.0 | 20.3%−10.8 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Paul Vickers · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 14.7 points, with 50.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 13.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Vickers Elected | PC | 20,158 | 44.1 |
| Selwyn J. Hicks | OLP | 13,445 | 29.4 |
| Joel Loughead | GP | 5,693 | 12.5 |
| James Harris | NDP | 3,611 | 7.9 |
| Ann Gillies | OTH | 1,006 | 2.2 |
| Vincent Grimaldi | OTH | 930 | 2.0 |
| Michael Butt | OTH | 681 | 1.5 |
| Matt Fritz | OTH | 148 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Perth—Wellington PC, safe seat
- Simcoe—Grey PC, safe seat
- Kitchener—Conestoga PC, safe seat
- Waterloo NDP, safe seat
- Dufferin—Caledon PC, safe seat
- Kitchener Centre GP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated