Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Provincial riding · Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | 49.2% | 26.4% | 15.9% | 5.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+7.6 | 32.5%−6.0 | 20.3%−4.5 | 3.0%+2.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Laurie Scott · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 29.1 points, with 48.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 22.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurie Scott Elected | PC | 26,446 | 52.0 |
| Alison Bennie | OLP | 11,676 | 23.0 |
| Barbara Doyle | NDP | 6,980 | 13.7 |
| Tom Regina | GP | 2,593 | 5.1 |
| Jacquie Barker | OTH | 1,221 | 2.4 |
| Brian Kerr | OTH | 969 | 1.9 |
| Zachary Tisdale | OTH | 384 | 0.8 |
| Gene Balfour | IND | 287 | 0.6 |
| Bill Denby | OTH | 275 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Simcoe North PC, safe seat
- Peterborough—Kawartha PC, toss-up
- Durham PC, safe seat
- York—Simcoe PC, safe seat
- Whitby PC, toss-up
- Oshawa NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated