Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Provincial riding · Ontario · Northern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder Bay—Atikokan | 43.3% | 28.9% | 26.0% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+1.7 | 20.3%+8.6 | 32.5%−6.5 | 3.0%−1.3 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Kevin Holland · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 19.9 points, with 49.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 14.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland Elected | PC | 13,727 | 45.7 |
| Judith Monteith-Farrell | NDP | 7,766 | 25.9 |
| Stephen Margarit | OLP | 7,398 | 24.6 |
| Martin Tempelman | OTH | 497 | 1.7 |
| Eric Arner | GP | 457 | 1.5 |
| K.C. Jones | OTH | 184 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Thunder Bay—Superior North NDP, safe seat
- Kiiwetinoong NDP, safe seat
- Kenora—Rainy River PC, safe seat
- Sault Ste. Marie NDP, toss-up
- Algoma—Manitoulin PC, safe seat
- Timmins PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated