Sault Ste. Marie
Provincial riding · Ontario · Northern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 48%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sault Ste. Marie | 45.7% | 40.6% | 11.3% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+25.4 | 41.6%−1.0 | 32.5%−21.1 | 3.0%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Chris Scott · IND
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 0.4 points, with 49.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 5.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Scott Elected | PC | 13,071 | 43.1 |
| Lisa Vezeau-Allen | NDP | 12,957 | 42.7 |
| Gurwinder Dusanjh | OLP | 3,036 | 10.0 |
| Arnold Heino | OTH | 564 | 1.9 |
| Jaycob Jacques | GP | 421 | 1.4 |
| Paul Frolich | OTH | 301 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Algoma—Manitoulin PC, safe seat
- Sudbury NDP, safe seat
- Nickel Belt NDP, safe seat
- Timmins PC, safe seat
- Huron—Bruce PC, safe seat
- Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated