Huron—Bruce
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huron—Bruce | 49.6% | 29.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+7.9 | 32.5%−3.1 | 20.3%−7.0 | 3.0%+1.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Lisa M. Thompson · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 22.0 points, with 54.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 20.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Thompson Elected | PC | 24,461 | 50.0 |
| Ian Burbidge | OLP | 13,703 | 28.0 |
| Nick Mcgregor | NDP | 5,739 | 11.7 |
| Matthew Van Ankum | GP | 2,727 | 5.6 |
| Zack Weiler | OTH | 2,065 | 4.2 |
| Bruce Eisen | OTH | 206 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- London North Centre NDP, safe seat
- London West NDP, safe seat
- London—Fanshawe NDP, safe seat
- Perth—Wellington PC, safe seat
- Elgin—Middlesex—London PC, safe seat
- Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated