Elgin—Middlesex—London
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 29.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elgin—Middlesex—London | 55.3% | 25.8% | 10.8% | 4.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+13.7 | 32.5%−6.7 | 20.3%−9.5 | 3.0%+1.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Rob Flack · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 31.3 points, with 49.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 29.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Flack Elected | PC | 28,720 | 55.8 |
| Douglas Mactavish | OLP | 12,598 | 24.5 |
| Amanda Zavitz | NDP | 4,738 | 9.2 |
| Amanda Stark | GP | 2,933 | 5.7 |
| Brian Figueiredo | OTH | 1,418 | 2.8 |
| Cooper Labrie | OTH | 610 | 1.2 |
| Stephen R Campbell | OTH | 469 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- London West NDP, safe seat
- London North Centre NDP, safe seat
- London—Fanshawe NDP, safe seat
- Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC, safe seat
- Oxford PC, safe seat
- Huron—Bruce PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated