London—Fanshawe
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| London—Fanshawe | 49.2% | 33.8% | 13.7% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+28.8 | 41.6%−7.9 | 32.5%−18.7 | 3.0%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Teresa J. Armstrong · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 13.4 points, with 41.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 15.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teresa Armstrong Elected | NDP | 18,749 | 47.6 |
| Pete Vanderley | PC | 13,480 | 34.2 |
| Kevin May | OLP | 4,884 | 12.4 |
| William Osbourne-Sorrell | GP | 1,045 | 2.7 |
| Christopher West | OTH | 654 | 1.7 |
| Dave Durnin | OTH | 381 | 1.0 |
| Alan John Mcdonald | IND | 205 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- London North Centre NDP, safe seat
- London West NDP, safe seat
- Elgin—Middlesex—London PC, safe seat
- Oxford PC, safe seat
- Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC, safe seat
- Perth—Wellington PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated