London West
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| London West | 50.7% | 34.5% | 12.4% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+30.3 | 41.6%−7.2 | 32.5%−20.1 | 3.0%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Peggy Sattler · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 14.2 points, with 50.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 16.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Sattler Elected | NDP | 26,589 | 49.2 |
| Beth Allison | PC | 18,892 | 35.0 |
| Baqar Khan | OLP | 5,991 | 11.1 |
| Jim Johnston | GP | 1,021 | 1.9 |
| Shane Dale | OTH | 636 | 1.2 |
| Ken Byma | OTH | 572 | 1.1 |
| Tim Hodges | OTH | 179 | 0.3 |
| Timothy Hammer | IND | 153 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- London North Centre NDP, safe seat
- Elgin—Middlesex—London PC, safe seat
- London—Fanshawe NDP, safe seat
- Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC, safe seat
- Oxford PC, safe seat
- Huron—Bruce PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated