London North Centre
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| London North Centre | 48.2% | 32.2% | 16.9% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+27.9 | 41.6%−9.5 | 32.5%−15.5 | 2.6%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Terence Kernaghan · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 14.1 points, with 46.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 16.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terence Kernaghan Elected | NDP | 22,587 | 46.7 |
| Jerry Pribil | PC | 15,783 | 32.6 |
| Tariq Khan | OLP | 7,557 | 15.6 |
| Carol Dyck | GP | 1,605 | 3.3 |
| Chris Wile | OTH | 512 | 1.1 |
| Paul Mckeever | OTH | 312 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- London—Fanshawe NDP, safe seat
- London West NDP, safe seat
- Elgin—Middlesex—London PC, safe seat
- Oxford PC, safe seat
- Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC, safe seat
- Huron—Bruce PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated