Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | 53.1% | 27.5% | 13.9% | 3.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+11.5 | 32.5%−4.9 | 20.3%−6.5 | 3.0%+0.8 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Steve Pinsonneault · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 27.3 points, with 51.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 25.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Pinsonneault Elected | PC | 25,297 | 53.6 |
| Cathy Burghardt-Jesson | OLP | 12,397 | 26.2 |
| Kathryn Shailer | NDP | 5,775 | 12.2 |
| Andy Fisher | OTH | 2,093 | 4.4 |
| Andraena Tilgner | GP | 1,677 | 3.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Elgin—Middlesex—London PC, safe seat
- London West NDP, safe seat
- Sarnia—Lambton PC, safe seat
- Chatham-Kent—Leamington PC, safe seat
- London North Centre NDP, safe seat
- London—Fanshawe NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated