Sarnia—Lambton
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 29.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarnia—Lambton | 50.8% | 21.3% | 19.7% | 8.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+9.2 | 20.3%+0.9 | 32.5%−12.8 | 3.0%+5.1 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Robert Bailey · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 31.6 points, with 50.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 29.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Bailey Elected | PC | 22,726 | 51.3 |
| Candace Young | NDP | 8,716 | 19.7 |
| Rachel Willsie | OLP | 8,134 | 18.4 |
| Keith Benn | OTH | 1,876 | 4.2 |
| Nathan Colquhoun | IND | 890 | 2.0 |
| Pamela Reid | GP | 840 | 1.9 |
| Jacques Boudreau | OTH | 591 | 1.3 |
| Mark Lamore | OTH | 359 | 0.8 |
| Tom Stoukas | OTH | 151 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Chatham-Kent—Leamington PC, safe seat
- Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC, safe seat
- Windsor—Tecumseh PC, safe seat
- Essex PC, safe seat
- Windsor West NDP, safe seat
- London West NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated