Windsor West
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OTH | OLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Windsor West | 53.7% | 39.0% | 5.5% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+33.3 | 41.6%−2.7 | 3.0%+2.5 | 32.5%−31.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Lisa Gretzky · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 12.7 points, with 38.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 14.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Gretzky Elected | NDP | 19,392 | 52.1 |
| Tony Francis | PC | 14,665 | 39.4 |
| Matthew Giancola | OTH | 1,019 | 2.7 |
| Nick Kolasky | GP | 868 | 2.3 |
| Mark Dewdney | OTH | 740 | 2.0 |
| Joshua Griffin | OTH | 523 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Windsor—Tecumseh PC, safe seat
- Essex PC, safe seat
- Chatham-Kent—Leamington PC, safe seat
- Sarnia—Lambton PC, safe seat
- Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC, safe seat
- Elgin—Middlesex—London PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated