Essex
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essex | 55.2% | 23.4% | 17.0% | 3.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+13.5 | 20.3%+3.0 | 32.5%−15.4 | 3.0%+0.9 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Anthony Leardi · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 33.9 points, with 50.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 31.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Leardi Elected | PC | 30,790 | 55.6 |
| Rachael Mills | NDP | 12,047 | 21.8 |
| Tamara Stomp | OLP | 8,707 | 15.7 |
| Stephen Higgins | GP | 1,282 | 2.3 |
| Brigitte Belton | OTH | 940 | 1.7 |
| Travis Jacques | OTH | 931 | 1.7 |
| Kevin Linfield | OTH | 469 | 0.8 |
| William Szabo Verzoc | IND | 200 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Windsor—Tecumseh PC, safe seat
- Windsor West NDP, safe seat
- Chatham-Kent—Leamington PC, safe seat
- Sarnia—Lambton PC, safe seat
- Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC, safe seat
- Elgin—Middlesex—London PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated