Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chatham-Kent—Leamington | 51.6% | 19.7% | 18.8% | 8.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+9.9 | 32.5%−12.8 | 20.3%−1.6 | 3.0%+5.9 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Trevor Jones · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 33.7 points, with 48.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 31.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Jones Elected | PC | 22,255 | 52.0 |
| Bill Kirby | OLP | 7,856 | 18.4 |
| Christian Sachs | NDP | 7,333 | 17.1 |
| Rhonda Jubenville | OTH | 3,387 | 7.9 |
| Matthew Davey | GP | 1,241 | 2.9 |
| Phillip St-Laurent | OTH | 704 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sarnia—Lambton PC, safe seat
- Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC, safe seat
- Essex PC, safe seat
- Windsor—Tecumseh PC, safe seat
- Windsor West NDP, safe seat
- Elgin—Middlesex—London PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated