Algoma—Manitoulin
Provincial riding · Ontario · Northern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algoma—Manitoulin | 39.1% | 30.4% | 15.9% | 13.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%−2.5 | 20.3%+10.1 | 32.5%−16.5 | 3.0%+10.9 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Bill Rosenberg · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 14.1 points, with 48.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 8.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Rosenberg Elected | PC | 11,263 | 41.3 |
| David Timeriski | NDP | 7,409 | 27.2 |
| Reg Niganobe | OLP | 3,948 | 14.5 |
| Michael Mantha | IND | 3,238 | 11.9 |
| Sheldon Pressey | OTH | 718 | 2.6 |
| Maria Legault | GP | 677 | 2.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sault Ste. Marie NDP, toss-up
- Sudbury NDP, safe seat
- Nickel Belt NDP, safe seat
- Timmins PC, safe seat
- Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP, safe seat
- Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated