Kenora—Rainy River
Provincial riding · Ontario · Northern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 35.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenora—Rainy River | 57.6% | 21.9% | 18.8% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+16.0 | 20.3%+1.6 | 32.5%−13.6 | 3.0%−1.6 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Greg Rickford · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 41.1 points, with 47.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 35.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Rickford Elected | PC | 10,541 | 59.9 |
| Rudy Turtle | NDP | 3,308 | 18.8 |
| Anthony Leek | OLP | 3,072 | 17.5 |
| John Redins | GP | 336 | 1.9 |
| Randy Ricci | OTH | 333 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Thunder Bay—Atikokan PC, safe seat
- Kiiwetinoong NDP, safe seat
- Thunder Bay—Superior North NDP, safe seat
- Sault Ste. Marie NDP, toss-up
- Algoma—Manitoulin PC, safe seat
- Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated