Thunder Bay—Superior North
Provincial riding · Ontario · Northern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | 43.7% | 31.7% | 22.7% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+23.3 | 41.6%−10.0 | 32.5%−9.8 | 3.0%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Lise Vaugeois · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 6.5 points, with 48.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 12.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lise Vaugeois Elected | NDP | 11,137 | 40.6 |
| Rick Dumas | PC | 9,348 | 34.1 |
| Brian Hamilton | OLP | 5,846 | 21.3 |
| John Northey | GP | 437 | 1.6 |
| Daniel K. Campbell | OTH | 336 | 1.2 |
| Katherine Suutari | OTH | 265 | 1.0 |
| Steve Hanssen | IND | 82 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kiiwetinoong NDP, safe seat
- Thunder Bay—Atikokan PC, safe seat
- Kenora—Rainy River PC, safe seat
- Algoma—Manitoulin PC, safe seat
- Sault Ste. Marie NDP, toss-up
- Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated