Mushkegowuk—James Bay
Provincial riding · Ontario · Northern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 38%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mushkegowuk—James Bay | 48.0% | 42.5% | 9.0% | 0.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+27.7 | 41.6%+0.9 | 32.5%−23.4 | 3.0%−2.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Guy Bourgouin · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 0.1 points, with 41.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 5.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guy Bourgouin Elected | NDP | 3,626 | 45.4 |
| Dave Plourde | PC | 3,617 | 45.3 |
| Kyle Allen | OLP | 621 | 7.8 |
| Catherine Jones | GP | 116 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Timmins PC, safe seat
- Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP, safe seat
- Algoma—Manitoulin PC, safe seat
- Sudbury NDP, safe seat
- Nickel Belt NDP, safe seat
- Sault Ste. Marie NDP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated