Kiiwetinoong
Provincial riding · Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 41.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiiwetinoong | 64.2% | 22.7% | 10.7% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+43.8 | 41.6%−19.0 | 32.5%−21.7 | 3.0%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Sol Mamakwa · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 36.7 points, with 27.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 41.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sol Mamakwa Elected | NDP | 3,512 | 62.2 |
| Waylon Scott | PC | 1,438 | 25.5 |
| Manuela Michelizzi | OLP | 409 | 7.2 |
| Carolyn Spicer | GP | 152 | 2.7 |
| Theresa Leppich | OTH | 136 | 2.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Thunder Bay—Superior North NDP, safe seat
- Thunder Bay—Atikokan PC, safe seat
- Kenora—Rainy River PC, safe seat
- Algoma—Manitoulin PC, safe seat
- Sault Ste. Marie NDP, toss-up
- Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated