2027 French presidential · Candidacy effect

Where each candidacy takes its votes from

French pollsters often test, in the same survey and on the same people, two candidate lists that differ by a single name. The difference between the two shows where the votes go. We did the subtraction.

39 polls · 181 lineups · September 29, 2025 – September 29, 2026

If a candidate is not on the list

Without Philippe

Philippe averages 14.8%. When left off the list, those voters go (gain in points, then share of the votes):

  • Attal +6.1 41%
  • Retailleau +3.1 21%
  • Glucksmann +2.3 16%
  • RN +1.3 9%
  • Mélenchon +0.5 3%
  • Tondelier +0.4 2%
  • Others +0.5

23 comparisons in 15 polls · Harris Interactive, Ifop, Ipsos BVA, OpinionWay, YouGov

Without Attal

Attal averages 8.3%. When left off the list, those voters go (gain in points, then share of the votes):

  • Philippe +3.9 46%
  • Retailleau +1.4 17%
  • Glucksmann +0.8 10%
  • Mélenchon +0.5 6%
  • Others +1.1

22 comparisons in 14 polls · Harris Interactive, Ifop, Ipsos BVA, OpinionWay

If one candidate replaces another

Attal instead of Philippe

Attal scores 14.2% where Philippe scores 18.4%. Around them, scores move like this:

  • Retailleau +1.7
  • Glucksmann +1.2
  • RN +0.8

49 comparisons in 28 polls · Cluster17, Elabe, Harris Interactive, Ifop, Ipsos BVA, Odoxa, OpinionWay

Hollande instead of Glucksmann

Hollande scores 8.6% where Glucksmann scores 11.8%. Around them, scores move like this:

  • Philippe +0.9
  • Tondelier +0.6
  • RN +0.5
  • Roussel +0.3
  • Attal +0.3

22 comparisons in 12 polls · Elabe, Harris Interactive, Ifop, Ipsos BVA, OpinionWay

Faure instead of Glucksmann

Faure scores 4.9% where Glucksmann scores 12.1%. Around them, scores move like this:

  • Philippe +2.1
  • Tondelier +1.1
  • RN +0.9
  • Roussel +0.9
  • Mélenchon +0.7
  • Attal +0.7

10 comparisons in 6 polls · Cluster17, Elabe, Ifop, Ipsos BVA, YouGov

Faure instead of Hollande

Faure scores 3.9% where Hollande scores 8.0%. Around them, scores move like this:

  • Philippe +1.4
  • Roussel +1.1
  • Dupont-Aignan +1.0
  • RN +0.8

4 comparisons in 4 polls · Elabe, Ifop

Villepin instead of Attal

Villepin scores 2.3% where Attal scores 7.7%. Around them, scores move like this:

  • Philippe +3.0
  • Glucksmann +0.7
  • Mélenchon +0.3
  • Roussel +0.3
  • Tondelier −0.3

3 comparisons in 3 polls · Elabe, Ifop

Villepin instead of Philippe

Villepin scores 2.8% where Philippe scores 14.2%. Around them, scores move like this:

  • Attal +6.2
  • Retailleau +2.3
  • Glucksmann +2.2
  • Tondelier −0.5

3 comparisons in 3 polls · Elabe, Ifop

Le Maire instead of Attal

Le Maire scores 5.0% where Attal scores 12.3%. Around them, scores move like this:

  • Glucksmann +2.3
  • Retailleau +2.0
  • RN +1.0
  • Arthaud +0.3
  • Dupont-Aignan +0.3
  • Philippe +0.3

3 comparisons in 2 polls · Ifop, YouGov

How it is calculated

  • We only keep pairs of lineups from the same survey: same fieldwork, same sample, same weighting. Only the list of candidates changes.
  • An effect is published only from 3 comparisons by at least 2 pollsters. Published shares are often rounded to the point: one comparison is noisy, the average much less so.
  • Le Pen and Bardella are grouped as “RN”: over the year, both carried the party’s candidacy.
  • These are voting intentions months before the vote: transfers measured today can change during the campaign.

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