The Barrage Index.

How we measure the wall.

The Index is a composite score, not an opinion. Four components, all from published French polling (Ifop, Elabe, Odoxa, Harris, Toluna…), the VoteScope presidential model (50,000 simulations) and transfer priors anchored on 2017/2022 exit data. Higher means a more solid barrage; lower means a higher risk of a far-right win in 2027.

Zones: Rock-solid (75–100) · Holding (50–75) · Strained (25–50) · Breached (0–25).

Four signals, one number.

Each component is public, weighted, and visible. Second-round duels are weighted by how likely the model rates each opponent’s qualification, so an implausible duel never drives the score.

The runoff the model expects.

The dam is only tested where the wave actually hits. This is the most likely second-round pairing across every candidate lineup tested recently (each weighted by its polls), with the barrage candidate’s simulated share and win probability.

What the wall looked like in 2017 and 2022.

Scored on official runoff results, the same margin component reads 2017 as a rock-solid barrage (+32 points) and 2022 as a barrage cut in half (+17). The 2027 polls currently sit on the other side of 50 — that is the story this instrument exists to track.

Since launch.

The series builds one reading at a time, through the declarations, the RN candidacy question, and the campaign itself.

From one number to every scenario.

The Barrage Index compresses the France presidential desk into a single reading. The desk itself lets you explore every candidate lineup, qualification probabilities, and duel outcomes.