Candidate Barometer — Quebec 2026
Gender and access to winnable ridings
Two separate questions, party by party: do parties field as many women as men, and do their women candidates get the ridings where the party is actually competitive? A gender-balanced slate can hide unequal placement.
As of September 18, 2026
Race to 127 candidacies
Nominations closed: all five parties are running a full slate.
Headcount parity
Share of women among a party's active candidacies, against the demographic target (women aged 20+ in Quebec, ISQ).
Placement gap
Average rank of the ridings given to new women candidates minus that of men, on the scale of 127 ridings ordered by projected party strength (0 = weakest, 100 = stronghold). Negative = women in weaker ridings. Incumbents excluded. 95% CI by resampling; p by permutation test.
All parties combined. Across all parties, the placement gap for new candidacies is +1.6 on the percentile scale (n = 540, p = 0.814) — no sign of a broadly unfavourable placement for women at this stage of nominations.
What the barometer shows about the past
The tool is calibrated on two known elections. It flags a real imbalance when there is one (2018) and reports "nothing to see" when there is not (2022) — a guard against cherry-picked conclusions.
2018 — The CAQ fielded the most women (52%) but placed them in its weakest ridings: a −18-point gap (p < 0.001). Its new women candidates were elected 37% of the time, versus 70% for its new men. The CAQ wave masked the pattern.
2022 — No significant gap in any party: all five placed their women candidates equitably. The CAQ even filled 79% of its new openings with women.
Method and sources
Gender is sourced (official MNA title, party press releases in gendered French, local press), never inferred from a first name alone; a trans woman counts as a woman, a trans man as a man, non-binary people are shown separately. The demographic target comes from ISQ population estimates (2025). The placement gap measures an observable distribution of electoral opportunities, not intent. Withdrawn candidacies (e.g. Gouin) drop out of the calculation.
Scientific basis
The "sacrificial lambs" and "glass cliff" phenomena are documented in Canada and elsewhere: parties sometimes nominate more women in unwinnable seats, inflating surface parity without sharing access to power.
References
- Thomas, M. & Bodet, M.A. (2013). Sacrificial lambs, women candidates, and district competitiveness in Canada. Electoral Studies.
- Tolley, E. et al. (2023). Still sacrificial lambs? Yes! Minority groups in Canadian federal elections, 2015–2021. Electoral Studies.
- Ryan, M.K., Haslam, S.A. & Kulich, C. (2010). Politics and the glass cliff. Psychology of Women Quarterly.