Vote-Scope Canada · Live instrument
The Canada Goose Index.
A composite measuring Mark Carney's political strength at home in Canada — the standing that underwrites his hand in the CUSMA (USMCA) negotiations. Six weighted components, real public data, zero opinion. The goose climbs as Carney's position at home strengthens.
Today's reading
88/100 ▲ 1.3 · 7dLiberal lead
LIB +17.7pp Vote-Scope modelDays to next election
1096 October 15, 2029Methodology
How we measure the honk.
The Index is a composite score, not an opinion. Six components, all from publicly available Canadian polling, the Vote-Scope federal model, and the Bloomberg/Nanos confidence series. Higher means a stronger negotiating posture.
Component Breakdown
Six signals, one number.
Each component is public, weighted, and visible. Personal Carney approval and the "who handles Trump best" question are the phase-2 upgrade — they are not yet in the data, so we do not fake them.
35% weight
Electoral Strength
LIB +17.7ppStrong tailwind25% weight
Mandate & Projection
231 seats · 100% majorityStrong tailwind15% weight
Government Approval
61% approveStrong tailwind15% weight
Economic Confidence
BNCCI 50.9Steady lift5% weight
National Mood
no data—5% weight
Mandate Horizon
~3.0 yr runwayStrong tailwindHistorical Series
Since launch.
The series builds one reading at a time. Watch the goose track Carney’s standing through the CUSMA review.
Index since launch
Mandate
A fresh majority, years of runway.
Where Trump faces a midterms clock, Carney holds a fresh mandate. The federal model and the calendar both feed the index.
Projected Liberal seats
231 / 343Majority probability
100% 10k simsProjected vote share
47.0% LIBTrade-war desk
Goose vs Lame Duck.
The Canada Goose Index is one half of the matchup. The trade-war desk pits it against the Trump Lame-Duck Index for the leverage gap, then surrounds it with what is actually in force at the border, live Polymarket and Kalshi prices, and polling from both sides.