Virginia’s 9th District

U.S. House · VA-9

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 34.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
VA-9	67.2%	32.8%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+23.0	54.5%−21.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.1% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Morgan Griffith · Republican

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Joy A. Powers	51.7%	9,521 votes
Republican primary	Morgan Griffith	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 45.2 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 34.4 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.